We’re heading down the stretch. The end of June is just around the corner and so will be the second quarter of 2014. What can real estate investors expect for Q3 and Q4? We can peek into the future and make some forecasts about interest rates and anticipate future Fed moves but as someone we what will mortgage rates doall know that one forecast is always one-upped by another one. But here’s a stab at where we’ve been and where we might head.

Lower rates mean lower financing costs and a more qualified pool of buyers and right now 30 years mortgage rates are at the lowest levels so far this year and are almost identical where they were just one year ago. The Freddie Mac Weekly Mortgage Survey reported the average 30 year fixed rate came in at 4.14%, just two basis points higher from the previous week. This is in spite of both the Dow and S&P 500 hitting record highs at the very same time. Historically either one or the other does well, but rarely have stocks and bonds marched in lockstep in such a fashion.

This fall, the end of the Federal Reserve’s vaunted QE program comes to an end. Today, the Fed buys $45 billion each month of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries, keeping rates artificially low. Yet what’s puzzling is that in light of that fact, one would expect rates to continue to rise on their own as bond holders sell in the current environment for better yields. But they’re holding their own. The Fed has also mentioned on more than one occasion they’re not really in a “rate increasing mode” and shouldn’t be until well into next year, even if then. There are too many external factors, primarily geopolitical ones that keep pushing funds into securities here in the U.S.

If that trend continues, and from this desk it appears to, interest rates should stay in their current range for some time, well into Q4. Rates may go up but not by much, at least if the various political “situations” overseas don’t get settled anytime soon. And that’s a forecast that appears easy to make.