Interest rates today for most all types of borrowing ultimately reflect Federal Reserve policy to some extent. The Federal Reserve Board, or the Fed, meets about once every six weeks to evaluate where the economy has been, where it is andunemployment numbers where it might be in the near future.

The current QEII stimulus plan, the $85 billion per month variety, has largely been credited with keeping interest rates low for at least two years now. That’s a lot of money but the economy appears to be on the mend, if not grudgingly so.

So when will the Fed stimulus party end? The exact date is certainly not a given but the Fed has in the past issued statements that QEII will soon come to a demise once the unemployment rate hits 6.5 percent. And while we jumped up a bit last month from 7.2 to 7.3 percent, it does appear that job creation is on the rise, although slightly so. But there’s another monthly report that is increasingly gaining more attention. A report issued by the private corporate services firm American Data Processing, or ADP.

ADP has its own proprietary count of job numbers it calls the National Employment Report and is released just a few days before the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ own Unemployment Report, provided on the first business Friday of each month, with the next report due December 6th.

The ADP report surveys the employment sector and estimates the number of new jobs created in the previous month based upon actual payroll data. In essence, ADP counts the number of pay checks it processes then extrapolates that data into its own number. And while close, the numbers don’t always match up with the Bureau’s count.

For example, the Bureau said 204,000 new jobs were created in October while ADP said there 130,000 more, for a difference of 84,000. Yet the month to month trends of both reports still follow a similar path. If the ADP report shows another increase from the previous month, the markets will prepare for a stronger Unemployment Report number December 6th.