Fresh off the release of the minutes from the Fed’s July FOMC meetings comes two reports confirming what many of the Board’s “hawks” were talking about. In yesterday’s article, you read how Fed members commented on how they’d like to see more data before coming to any consensus regardinghome sales rise in july when and how high to raise rates, if at all.

Amid concerns the housing market may be cooling off ahead of the QEIII stoppage in October and the higher rates that might follow the National Association of Realtors reported that home sales for the month of July rose 2.4 percent from the previous month to an annualized rate of 5.15 homes, surpassing analyst expectations for the fourth straight month. You’ll recall last summer just after then Chair Bernanke announced an end to the Fed pumping, rates popped up and home sales slowed immediately thereafter. The July 2014 numbers show the highest level of sales in a year.

At the same time a survey released by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank reported that economic activity for the region rose from 23.9 to 28, which is nearly 10 points higher than many expected. It seems we’ve been getting quite a few so-called “surprise numbers” as predictions seem to be more cautious than reality.

If we continue to see such reports consistently beat expectations the number of Fed members who are now doves will begin to sound a little bit more like a hawk. It doesn’t have to be a unanimous vote when Fed members consider raising, lowering or keeping the Fed Funds and Discount rate the same, it takes a majority. Chair Yellen is a well-known dove as it relates to interest rates but she may soon be getting a bit more pressure from the other side. If various economic reports in September also beat expectations, rates will begin to rise overall without any direct Fed action, all in anticipation of such a move. We might very well be witnessing an end to sub-5.00% 30 year mortgage rate.